05 July 2010


I got to see a probe in action while checking the charts, the fall of EUR/USD (the hammer on the 15 minute chart which became a drop down as a new valuation was accepted). I have found the time around 7-8 pm  New York time to be a time when market turns try to happen, because the removal of warped equity markets make it a time when internal currency valuations reassert themselves.

Look at 4 hour EUR/USD, look where EUR/USD is poised, at the top of the surge on 7/1 but it is running into support from the structure at the beginning of the smaller surge on 7/2.

Note the tests of this level of support, including the present test. I have found on 1 min, around three tests of a significant support level tends to result in the definitive move...(7/6: the move up is exactly like a three test bounce, onto support -20 from 00, remember this analysis for 1 min, the point of this is to see how fractal the market is, but watch for what Europe is doing to this valuation, there are the fundamentals for Euro).

Look on the 1 month EUR/USD chart there is a whole series of valuation probes from mid 2006 onwards which is giving resistance to EUR/USD moving upwards right now  (valuation probes are both technical and fundamental). Mid 2006 onwards is where the stock market surge and the rise of EUR/USD to 1.6 happened.

All debt related. All deflated. Reflated to an extent and now deflating. The problem for the market right now, is if government debt is unstable, like mortgage assets proved to be, what else is left ? Everything...company growth.

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