04 July 2010

Post-Crisis Flow

The market is not unfairly valued at all, all that has happened is the inflation upwards from money flow based on cheap borrowing has deflated, a deflation which started when the Fed hinted about raising rates. Raising rates would remove this cheap cash, but the Fed has effectively done this without raising rates.

Now that is the interesting phenomenon. What has been removed from the market is the revenue inflation consequent on mortgage backed assets (were they ever assets ?), the surge one can see on the Dow up till the crash. What was put back in by the Fed was debt again, but debt back stopped by the good faith of the US government.

What I mean by this is keeping rates low has a consequence, because they have to be raised sometime and what effect does this have. Well it seems they have factored this in, by removing the effect. The fall in the market has not been the crisis it was, during the financial crisis.

During the crisis huge companies had their equity reduced to near zero. It was a shock of epic proportions, triggering huge margin calls in the hedge funds and vast movements in currencies.

This time, it was only about the effect of using money flow, consequent on low rates to push a sector keep it there then move to another sector (like using a digging machine). The problem was, there was nothing to hold the values there, the recovery did not happen in time (the good faith in the government and the future) and they have effectively slid back. Look for something to push it all up again (this would work against a head and shoulders pattern on the long term Dow).

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