23 March 2023

Following the Unlikely in Forex

What does unlikely really mean in markets. The markets is prone to unlikely moves, often driven by volatility. Unlikely can be seen as moves counter to the extended trend, which may happen from nowhere or in response to some change in fundamentals. When happening from nowhere, they can inherently be seen as unlikely. When happening from fundamentals they can be seen as unlikely because they are counter to the prevailing, extended trend.

This said a continuation can transform this sense of an unlikely move to one which becomes more likely and even then later to be expected. The move to expected can be seen as consequent particularly from the perspective of a past, that is a point where the move develops a momentum of its own, and then maybe helping to focus on a particular fundamental as significant. This is a sense of a market not following fundamentals but helping to solidify their relative importance.

In Forex, this sense of unlikely permeates the trading environment. This is because fundamentals can seem disconnected from the way the market behaves, which is another way of looking at what is described as volatility and the sense that technical analysis may not work. That is, the trading stance is to trust something other than the market.

However it might be said that structure in the Forex market, while it may not say where and for how long a move may go, can at least show patterns which explain why a pair is at support or resistance, for example. The likeliness may show in the details if not the bigger picture. When Stocks make unlikely moves, it may be seen from a perspective looking into the past, that the move made sense. However at the time it may be that there were other outcomes which seemed more likely.

This is true of Forex as well, but in a manner which can point to the volatile, complex nature of Forex, that is it can go in different ways at any time, all of which would make sense, or no sense at all. While it can be possible to prune outcomes, the probability that one will happen is too prone to random events, to make it inherently likely.

Random events can include a myriad of news and data which can affect Forex pairs. This said, less volatile pairs may show less capacity to move as the capacity to move is itself composed of the myriad influences on more significant pairs. This can show in the complex patterns traced out on a day trading scale. Stocks tend to have a more static life, waiting for market volatility to move in the right direction and then to enhance or reverse their move with results. This said liquidity flows can push or deplete Stocks as they can directly or indirectly in Forex.

Forex trading represented in a canvas with various interrelated elements

One way of looking at whether something is likely or unlikely in Forex is to consider whether it is possible given current market conditions and past market events which are establishing support and resistance. In Stocks these may not be so important, as the market is looking to value or revalue them based on clearer fundamental factors grounded to some extent in the Stocks. Meaning that 'unlikely' events can happen, simply because it is easier to see what the event means, while a Forex move can simply be seen as related to or contignent on technical factors or on a data release which is neither lilkely or unlikely because it is being categorised as a surprise or not a surprise. That is, if it is a surprise, it is still to be seen as allowing for a likely outcome.

Even when Forex moves do not react as expected, then it can be seen as due to factors such that they allow a move to oscillate, for example. In fact it might be said that oscillation after a news release is the likely outcome, relatively speaking, as more directional outcomes may be contingent on unlikely events, such as a surprise (and may not happen even so).

It may be the case that complex outcomes are the only likely ones, thus directional sustained moves are unlikely, but may happen if they emerge from such an expectation. This counter intuitive nature of Forex also spreads over to Stocks, as it is prone to complexity in outcomes, even if they seem simpler, taken part by part.