20 August 2010

Precision: Forex and the Dow

I have noted the precision of forex. I have also noted that this may be a reference not merely to former support and resistance (but what exactly is that, forex is filled with analysis which stops at labels) but also the economy (which is presently awash with cheap dollars which are finding less and less places to get quick returns).

The possibility this may be a precise reference to the economy is interesting. This precision suggests to me the problem with moving averages and oscillators in forex. They remove this precision (it may be Raghee Horner's 34 EMA brings it back to an extent). One gets it back by looking at raw chart data, as this blog had done.

It may be you can get away with removing precision in the Dow because there is that more significant structure that the blog has talked about, which structural indicators like RSI reveal to an extent.

But it may be that is what there is in forex and smoothing data or creating limits to it and compressing, removes exactly what you want. I might conjecture if it were the case that oscillators were as accurate in forex as in equities then forex would not be such an easy way to lose money. Anyway what might it be that forex is referencing and is the Dow referencing it as well.

The blog noted the recent reference of USD/JPY to structure deep in the late 90s. One might say that this reference is the stark fact that the economy may not really have changed much since then. It was inflated deflated and then inflated and deflated again. In the heart of the revaluation depths of the crisis, the Dow referenced levels from, well, the mid-late 90s. When most like the forex market, it behaved like it as well.

However there is a core of the economy which has thrived despite these monetary games, which have a political cause, as credit derived inflation brings easy money in all sense of the words (and then an almighty crash). This core has been noted by this blog, and it is the creative engine of the US economy.

The US seems to have an extraordinary concentration of creative people and it seems to provide an environment for them to create. This is across industries, from advanced tech, to hip-hop to Hollywood.

In terms of economic effect, one creative person may have enormous and unpredictable economic impact (one reason why it may be a mistake for a governments to try and bring people in to a country based on measured skills and presumed needs for them etc., if you want success attract the creative or create a conducive environment for them within the country). So what does this mean for companies.

Well, typically a great company has one creative person whom the company tries to keep with it at all costs (Jobs, Buffett, for example). This blog talked about intentional action and how it might show in the financial statements. But creativity is a special form of intentionality. So can the actions of these people show in the financial statements.

Now, it is all very well looking at AAPL, but of course what you want is to see signs of this before it happens. For some, this is a Holy Grail, the capacity to see quality tech stocks before they take off. It is extremely hard to do this, and many simply stay away from them, but these companies are where the enormous growth is coming from, and the salvation of the US economy.

What is it the creative tend to do, well they tend to formalize strong ideas and make them effective in whatever medium they are in. That discussion of WFR was designed to look and see if it is showing in the structure of working capital and this blog will probably continue this examination.

Anyway if USD/JPY is referencing the economy now, then its recent slight rise may be referencing the real growth in the economy, that real recovery I have talked about, as this blog suggested. But of course this recovery is masked by oceans of money flow this blog has talked about and this shows in the currency data as well, the fragility of the rise and its structuring in a range.

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