Volatility and its Abscence

Volatility and its Abscence

It can be noted that on the short term moves may emerge from movements of extremely low volatility, in fact when the chart flatlines. From here structured moves may happen. It can also be seen that moves may emerge on a longer term view when volatility is apparently decreasing, for example when a market is resting on support with consistently lowering highs.

This asymmetry can be explained by seeing that longer term moves will tend not to flatline, at least for markets where there is ongoing activity. But shorter term moves may, for example in a situation where overall market volatility has reduced, but still allowing for structured moves to develop from these flat moves. However they may be essentially the same thing, structured by the reality of trader and program response.

Thus the emergence of volatility can be seen as coming from a lack of volatility. However this is also to be expected, as markets trade on the future, even for spot markets. Thus a lack of volatility can be seen as an expectation of future volatility. But it can be more than this, for the overall pattern emerging from flat moves becoming structured moves can be seen as expressing the shape of volatility, that is a kind of irregularity.

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