News Trading The First Minute

Forex News Trading: The First Minute

One of the features of news trades is that the main action can happen in a very short period of time. That is the market can make the move it will make in one minute or less. This differs it from other kinds of trading, as moves can play out over significantly longer time frames. A news trade is not like very short term trading, as it does not seek to make use regularities. Rather it is arguably a full blown trade, which works or does not. Within this time frame a number of outcomes can happen. Generally there will be a strong directional move at or very close to the moment of release. If it is very close to the time of release it can sharply reverse, if the directional sentiment on release is opposite to the pre-release surge. However the move on release can also collapse very quickly, creating a move which reverses back. This kind of move is like an oscillation. When seen, the move can be observed collapsing quickly.

It is an interesting question the extent to which news trades are simply regular trading patterns. It might be said that they do differ from such trades, as the capacity for the market to structure is removed by intense liquidity, but something is still there, which is immune or enhanced by liquidity bursts. For example, market opens and closes are characterised by changes in liquidity - here volatile oscillations can also be seen. But a news trade oscillations may not necessarily be volatile, it can be quite structured and regular. The reverse may even be contingent on a deeper (if rapid) understanding of the news, rather than random non linear changes in liquidity and can reflect this.

Alternatively, the market can surge and continue surging. It still may pause within the first minute. This can have a number of outcomes (each state change can be seen as initiating the capacity of the market to have multiple outcomes, depending on changes in direction and momentum). It can then continue, or it can reverse, or perhaps less likely stay where it is. It is less likely to stay where it is, on the view that this is a trading move, and the market will tend to mean revert any move. Although the question remains in this kind of move, where the mean is. It can be seen on this analysis that to continue is less likely than reversing. And indeed this may be the case. A news trade which surges, pauses (typically at some resistance level) then continues is like all potentially great trading moments, rare.

The other possibility is that nothing much happens in this time frame. Whether this is likely to happen depends on a number of factors, including whether the news release tends to have an effect (this is something which may depend on factors such as: is the economy growing - if this is happening there is usually a time when there is inherent surprise in good news).

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