08 June 2010

Market Structure Bounces

I believe the recovery will be strong when it happens, and it is already beginning. The problem is one the central banks created, removing all the distortions caused by cheap dollars.

Really, interest rates should already be rising, and the market seems to think so as well. These falls in equities and forex are not based around fundamentals, but a market saturated with liquidity based on cheap dollars. Long term the $ is rising even against JPY.

Anyway they are not so much falls right now as ranges followed by falls. This is not 2008 yet. A lot of 2008 was de-leveraging from years of distortions caused by the housing bubble. These were burned away, in the huge fall. Yes new distortions were introduced, but these are not so serious, yet.

As I said here is some more '00' behavior (market structure analysis). By '00' I mean USD/JPY 91.00 for example. This is a typical behavior at '00' I have seen many times, assuming downward momentum and on the 1 min chart. 3 attempts to breach '00', with a bounce up till 15, then back down.

Third attempt or fourth attempt breach, then move down with return at .85. Or surge down with a spike at .75. Then you get clear reversals back up, why because you are getting a bullish divergent bar which programs love to short cover on. Even in news trading you will get this behavior.

It is happening because there are buy orders clustered around '00', speculative buys, and program pattern recognition.

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